Sunday, August 31, 2008

NFL Week 1 Free Picks






Here is one of my potential open day eye openers. Carolina has the type of lineup that could give San Diego fits. This one should stay close until the wire and the Panthers could take this one at the end...take Carolina + the points and play it safe, or roll with the moneyline and take a chance!

ADVICE: Carolina Panthers +9.5




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Wednesday, April 23, 2008


1. Miami Dolphins -- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
Record: 1-15 | Needs: OT, CB, WR, QB, G
Vernon Carey cannot succeed in the NFL at LT. Pardon the pun, but Jake Long is the long term solution for a major problem area of the Fins. Cam Cameron's offense doesn't work without an imposing offensive line that can blow the D off the boards. Jake Long is the best player available and fills an important need. No Brainer pick.

2. St. Louis Rams -- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
Record: 3-13 | Needs: DE, DT, WR, C, OLB, OT
The Rams are sitting in a great position at #2 with 2 impact D-Linemen to choose from. On one hand you have Dorsey who could easily plug their porous defensive line. On the other hand, Chris Long is another option adding depth to their underachieving D Ends, Leonard Little and James Hall. Tough decision? Gets even tougher...I have a sinking suspicion that Atlanta doesn't want Matt Ryan at #3 and would trade up, throw in a couple picks, and take Dorsey. Then St. Louis could take Chris Long and walk with a couple extra picks. It makes sense for both teams... Rams select Glenn Dorsey pick is traded to Atlanta for Chris Long at #3 and a few picks.

3. Atlanta Falcons -- Chris Long, DE, Virginia (TRADE)
Record: 4-12 | Needs: QB, OT, CB, DT, TE
(see above)

**Side Note** Matt Ryan is this years Aaron Rodgers. This will be the longest Saturday morning of his life...Ok Ok it won't be thaat bad...maybe a little more Matt Leinart ish...but ultimately Matt is going to be sitting up until the 8th pick. ESPN will have a camera in his face every single agonizing second until another team with a need for a QB picks...Didn't McNair retire... As for Atlanta, they have been planning on picking Brian Brohm from Louisville since Petrino got the job. That's why they rotated Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron "Micheal Brick" Leftwich at QB. Petrino's gone?? Pick stays the same. Arthur Blank signed Petrino because he truly respected his football accumen. Blank has been drooling over Brohm for 2 years after Petrino planted the seed...2nd Round pick: Brian Brohm...

4. Oakland Raiders -- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DE/DT, OT/G, SLB, WR, RB
All of the ignorant Raiders fans are pacing back and forth with expectation on this pick. Will Al bring them McFadden...Al loves the flashy pick...but wait...not happening. As much as I hate the Raiders and in turn hate on Al Davis. He wasn't born yesterday. He understands needs vs desires. Example...all the Raider fans were screaming for WR Roy Williams out of Texas a few years ago...they then picked CB/S Micheal Huff...based on need. Warren Sapp is OLD, the board is thin, tons of impact sleeper running backs peppered throughout the draft...I'm gonna give Al the benefit of the doubt that 1/2 of his brain is still working and trust he makes the correct need based decision...Big Sedrick Ellis out of USC...

5. Kansas City Chiefs -- Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DE, OT, CB, DT, G, C, WR, QB
Jared Allen leaving opens up a huge need for KC and although they would have loved to see Chris Long slip...they will be more than happy picking up the heir apparent pass rusher for the next 5 years. Gholdston could have an instant oppurtunity for impact.

6. New York Jets -- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Record: 4-12 | Needs: DE, WR, CB, FS, ILB, RB
The building erupts. Everyone rejoicing in Radio City...they should be

7. N.E. Patriots (from 5-11 S.F.) -- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
Record: 16-0 | Needs: ILB, OLB, CB, ROT, TE
We still think the Patriots will trade out of this pick, whether it's up to get Chris Long or down to get better value. If stuck at No. 7, the intelligent and versatile Rivers makes the most sense.

8. Baltimore Ravens -- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Record: 5-11 | Needs: QB, CB, LOT, OLB/DE, ILB
Finally, throw on that 2008 Draft Day hat...celebrate your top 10 selection...make the Falcons pay every time you face them down the road...

9. Cincinnati Bengals -- Branden Albert, OT/G, Virginia
Record: 7-9 | Needs: NT, OT, DE, LB, WR, C
It's unlikely that Cincinnati will stay here and get this lucky. Either the Bengals or Saints will be aggressive to land the second best defensive tackle available. If the Saints leapfrog the Bengals and take Ellis, Rivers would be Cincinnati's pick if he slides. If Rivers isn't there, the best available offensive tackle (Albert or Ryan Clady) would be the next option.

10. New Orleans Saints -- Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
Record: 6-9 | Needs: CB, DT, LB, TE, ROT, S
The Saints' options are as follows: First, move up to land Dorsey (likely too big a jump to make from pick No. 10); second, trade up to get Ellis; third, stay here and hope Rivers is available; fourth, if the first three options are unavailable, then try to trade back; fifth, if all else fails, take the best corner on the board (Jenkins or Leodis McKelvin).

11. Buffalo Bills -- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Record: 7-9 | Needs: WR, TE, CB, DE, FS
Taking Thomas here is a substantial reach, but we hear the Bills have targeted him, and their most pressing need is at receiver.

12. Denver Broncos -- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Record: 7-9 | Needs: OT, WR, DT, MLB, S
Denver supposedly prefers Williams over Ryan Clady because Williams is more mobile and polished. We also should let you know that there are some rumblings that the Broncos might take RB Jonathan Stewart here.

13. Carolina Panthers -- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Record: 7-9 | Needs: ROT, FS, DE, RB, TE
Clady and Jeff Otah are the safest picks here, but Harvey is a good value, and the retirement of Mike Rucker makes defense a greater need. The Panthers also could take RBs Stewart or Rashard Mendenhall here.

14. Chicago Bears -- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Record: 7-9 | Needs: OT, QB, RB, WR, G, S
One of Chicago's greatest needs is at offensive tackle, and Clady is the better overall prospect compared to Otah.

15. Detroit Lions -- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Record: 7-9 | Needs: RB, DE, OT, LB, DT
Though Detroit would prefer Harvey if he slips to them, the Lions would do well to land Mendenhall here.

16. Arizona Cardinals -- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, FS, RB, LOT, WR, S
Arizona needs to bolster its defensive backfield, and the Cardinals can take the best available safety or corner because current DB Antrel Rolle can line up at either position. In our opinion, that means McKelvin.

17. Kansas City (from 8-8 Minnesota) -- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
Record: 8-8 | Needs: DE, QB, OT, CB, WR
After getting Long to replace Allen at defensive end, the Chiefs will look to address the offensive line here. Otah is a tough drive blocker capable of making an immediate impact on the right side.

18. Houston Texans -- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tenn. St.
Record: 8-8 | Needs: CB, LOT, DE, G/C, S
Houston should take the best available corner as long as one of the top four is still on the board, and in this scenario the Texans get No. 3 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

19. Philadelphia Eagles -- Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
Record: 8-8 | Needs: S, WR, LB, OT/G, DE
The Eagles signed free agent Asante Samuel, but Lito Sheppard has asked to be traded and likely will be gone after the draft. Keeping that in mind, taking the No. 4 corner prospect here makes sense.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, LOT, CB, QB, DT
Joey Galloway continues to produce, but he is 36 years old, and 32-year-old Ike Hilliard already has lost a step to age. With Buffalo taking Thomas earlier in the round, Hardy is a strong candidate to come off the board here.

21. Washington Redskins -- Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
Record: 9-7 | Needs: WR, S, DE, OL, CB
Washington is clearly in the market for a No. 1 receiver, as it already has tried to get disgruntled Cincinnati WR Chad Johnson in a trade. So the Redskins would like Thomas here, but it's highly unlikely. If they can't get Thomas, Merling is a good value here, and taking him would help them address one of their most pressing needs.

22. Dallas Cowboys (from 10-6 CLE) -- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, WR, RB, OT, S
Unless the Cowboys can get the Pacman Jones deal done, they would like to get one of the top four corners here. All four are off the board in this scenario, though, and with Dallas not expected to make a blockbuster trade to acquire McFadden, it could fill the need at running back with Felix Jones, who would complement Marion Barber well.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Record: 10-6 | Needs: DE (3-4), OT, WR, G, FS
Stewart's stock has rebounded since turf toe surgery in March, and with Willie Parker coming off a broken fibula, Stewart is too good of a value to pass up here.

24. Tennessee Titans -- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Record: 10-6 | Needs: WR, DE, DT, CB, OLB
DT Kentwan Balmer is a possibility here, but wide receiver is the more pressing need, and Sweed would be the best available in this scenario.

25. Seattle Seahawks -- Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
Record: 10-6 | Needs: TE, WR, DT, S, OL
While tight end and receiver are arguably more pressing needs, the Seahawks should be able to get help at those positions after the first round. Meanwhile, Balmer ranks third in what is a shallow defensive tackle pool, so taking him here makes the most sense for the Seahawks.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
Record: 11-5 | Needs: DE, DT, SS, OT, WR
The Jaguars need help along the defensive front, so they should take the best available defensive lineman. With DE Calais Campbell sliding down draft boards, that would be Jackson.

27. San Diego Chargers -- Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Record: 11-5 | Needs: ROT, S, RB, NT, CB
Rumor has it that San Diego is another team interested in Stewart's services, but it doesn't appear that he will last this long. In addition, the Chargers clearly need a right tackle, and Cherilus would be a good fit.

28. Dallas Cowboys -- DeSean Jackson, WR, California
Record: 13-3 | Needs: WR, CB, RB, G/C, QB, NT
With running back being addressed at No. 22 and no real value at corner here, look for the Cowboys to take a receiver. Jackson has the burst to make an immediate impact working out of the slot, and he also would give Dallas' punt return unit a boost.

29. S.F. 49ers (from 13-3 IND) -- Jerod Mayo, OLB, Tennessee
Record: 5-11 | Needs: ROT, OLB, WR, G/C, QB
San Francisco would prefer to get Cherilus and then move 2007 first-round pick Joe Staley to left tackle and start Cherilus on the right side, but Cherilus is gone in this scenario. In addition, WR Malcolm Kelly looks like he's sliding out of the first round. Mayo is versatile enough to play inside or outside and would be a strong pick here if Cherilus is gone.

30. Green Bay Packers -- Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Record: 13-3 | Needs: CB, S, OT, TE, QB, RB
Charles Woodson and Al Harris are both on the downsides of their careers and there's no heir apparent behind either of them, so Green Bay needs to inject youth and talent at corner. Flowers is a bit of a reach here, but his smarts and toughness would make him a good fit for the Packers' scheme.

XX. New England Patriots -- Pick forfeited
Record: 16-0 | Needs: ILB, CB, OLB, OL
The Patriots lost the 31st overall pick as part of the penalty handed down for illegally taping Jets coaches from the sideline in Week 1.

31. New York Giants -- Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas State
Record: 10-6 | Needs: S, OLB, CB, WR, G/T, DT
The ideal situation is for Mayo to slide this far because he would be an excellent value this late in the first round. However, the Giants also need help at safety after losing Gibril Wilson to free agency, and Johnson has been moving up draft boards.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Upset of the Day?

Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets (-5)

Hardly an upset when you're taking at team with the best record in the league but nevertheless, Boston +200 is somewhat appealing. Houston is riding a 22 game win streak and we've backed them throughout. Not this time. Not against this team. Not tonight. Both teams should stay under a 100 points and this could come down to the wire. C'mon folks, the Celts should take advantage of a smaller banged up Rocket team and take this one outright. Why not double your money and run with the +200...

PICK: Boston Celtics SU (+200) or Celtics +5

Monday, March 17, 2008

NBA Lock of the Day

Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Hornets (-4)

The Hornets are hosting the Bulls tonight fresh off of a 21 point loss at Detroit yesterday. A trip back home and a game vs. Chicago is just what they need for a nice bounce back. Chicago lost by 4 at Philly Friday and are an appalling 1-6 ATS coming off of 3 days rest. New Orleans had the Bulls number last time on the road in the United Center and I don't expect anything different at home in New Orleans. Tyson Chandler is in another revenge spot against his former team and it is more than likely that the Hornets cover this number by double digits. I would have still bet it at -10, therefore -4 is a virtual lock...


Saturday, March 15, 2008

Saturday Picks....

Championship Weekend is here...

Duke (-4)
Stanford (+4)
Kent St. (-1)
Pittsburgh (+5)
Boise St. (+6)
Cal St. Fullerton (-6)

Friday, March 14, 2008

Babe of the Day...

Friday Night Picks...

Here are some picks for Friday Night... Good luck...make that money!

Duke -11
West Virginia +3
Illinois +5.5
USC +8.5
Kent St. -2
Stanford -2

Friday Morning Quick Pick...

Texas (-7) vs. Oklahoma State

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Winning parlay from earlier today

2) BET ID=2412XXXX
Parlay (7 Teams) 03/12/08 18:56 ET
bet 50.00 to win 3733.70 (paid 2173.60) Result: Wager Won
Bobcats(Charlotte) 93
Mavericks(Dallas) 118
03/12/08(20:40 ET)
Mavericks(Dallas) -11
ArizonaSt 55
USC 59
03/13/08(15:05 ET)
ArizonaSt +5
California 84
WashingtonU 81
03/12/08(21:05 ET)
California -140
Cincinnati 64
Pittsburgh 70
03/12/08(19:10 ET)
Cincinnati +8.5
OklahomaSt 76
TexasTech 72
03/13/08(12:35 ET)
OklahomaSt -3.5
OregonSt 56
Arizona 87
03/12/08(23:50 ET)
Arizona -17.5
Canucks(Vancouver) 1
Ducks(Anaheim) 4
03/12/08(22:05 ET)
Under 5 (-135)

More Thursday Picks..

Here are my top 7 college basketball picks for tonight...

Louisville SU
Notre Dame/Marquette OVER 147
New Mexico St. -19.5
Stanford -1 and OVER 130.5
Golden State Warriors +7.5
Cleveland Cavs+3


Today's Picks...

Had a rough start yesterday but closed out well and evened out with a UofA blowout. That is moreso the reason that today is going to be a great one. What comes up, must come down...and vice versa. Everyone has a "bad day" once in a while, I had an average one...charge it to the game.

Were coming through with free winning picks all day stay tuned!

Build that bankroll


Oddsmaker Blunder?

Thursday Lock of the Day

Penn State vs. Illinois (-8) Penn State 8 points at a neutral site? I guess so, Nothing wrong with a little free money right? Illinois lost to PSU by 1 and 4 already this season. Don't get me wrong, the chance of a three game sweep of the Illini is not a lock by any means, but look for a close game that comes down to the final minutes. Take the 8 points, slap your bookie 5, and ride the Nitanny Lions...

PICK: Penn State +8